Watching Anthony Edwards evolve this season has been one of the most thrilling experiences for me as a long-time NBA analyst. I remember first seeing him in his rookie year—raw, explosive, but clearly something special. Now, in his fourth season, he’s not just knocking on the door of superstardom; he’s kicked it wide open. Averaging close to 26 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists per game, Edwards has become the engine of the Minnesota Timberwolves, a team that’s gone from playoff hopefuls to genuine title contenders. But what’s truly fascinating, and what I want to explore here, is the pattern of his ascent. It reminds me of a concept I often see in sports dynasties, a kind of recurring blueprint for success. I was recently analyzing some data from volleyball championships—specifically, the history between the Cool Smashers and the Angels. In the two previous occasions that these teams played a rubber match for the championship—four years apart from each other—there have been a few recurring patterns that may very well be a good omen for the Game Two victor. That idea of a predictable, almost fated, progression in a high-stakes scenario is exactly what we're witnessing with Anthony Edwards. His breakout isn't a random event; it feels like the culmination of a plan, a pattern playing out just as it should for a player destined for the top.
When you look at Edwards’ game now compared to even last season, the maturity is staggering. I’ve always believed that the jump from a talented scorer to a complete franchise player is the hardest leap to make in this league. For Edwards, it started with his conditioning. Last summer, he reportedly shed about 12 pounds of fat and replaced it with lean muscle, working with a dedicated team of trainers for over 90 days straight. This isn’t just gym lore; you can see it on the court. His defensive intensity, which was once inconsistent, is now relentless. He’s averaging nearly 2 steals a game, and his on-ball defense against primary scorers has been a game-changer for the Wolves. I was at a game in November where he hounded an All-Star guard into a 5-for-18 shooting night. It was a masterclass. Offensively, his decision-making has improved by leaps and bounds. The contested, off-the-dribble three-pointers that made me wince in his first two seasons have been replaced by a more calculated attack. He’s reading the help defense, drawing double-teams, and making the right pass. His assist percentage has jumped from around 18% to nearly 25% this season. That’s the mark of a player who understands he doesn’t have to carry the load alone, but can elevate everyone around him.
This brings me back to that pattern I mentioned. In those championship rubber matches, the team that won Game Two had a distinct advantage not just because of momentum, but because they had a player or a system that could consistently execute under the new pressure of the series. The victory revealed a blueprint, and they had the personnel to follow it again and again. For Anthony Edwards, this season has been his "Game Two victory." The pressure was on for him to prove he could lead a team deep into the playoffs after last year's first-round exit. The blueprint for him was always there—the athleticism, the charisma, the scoring punch—but this season, he’s started to execute it with a veteran's poise. He’s no longer just reacting to the game; he’s controlling its tempo. I see it in the way he navigates pick-and-rolls, the way he communicates with his teammates on defense, calling out switches and coverages. He’s internalized the game plan and is now the one dictating it on the floor. That’s a transition very few players make, and it’s why the Timberwolves' success feels sustainable, not fluky.
Of course, you can’t talk about a rising star without looking at the numbers, and Edwards’ are becoming historic. He’s on pace to be one of only ten players in NBA history to average at least 25-5-5 while being under 23 years old. Let that sink in. We’re talking about company that includes LeBron James, Luka Dončić, and Michael Jordan. In a dominant 40-point performance against the Pacers last month, he shot 65% from the field and was a +28 in plus/minus. These aren't empty stats on a bad team; they are impactful numbers that directly translate to wins for a team currently sitting near the top of the Western Conference with a projected 55-win season. From my perspective, what’s even more impressive is his efficiency. His true shooting percentage has climbed to a respectable 58%, a significant jump from his rookie year, proving he’s picking his spots more wisely. He’s taking fewer of those difficult, low-percentage shots and getting to the rim and the free-throw line more often. It’s a simple adjustment on paper, but it requires a level of discipline that separates the good from the great.
So, where does he go from here? In my opinion, the ceiling is literally the roof, to borrow a phrase. The pattern of his development suggests that this is just the beginning. The "Game Two victory" of his breakout season has set a new standard, and now the expectation is that he will follow the blueprint to its ultimate conclusion: an NBA championship. He has the supporting cast, the defensive system, and the coaching. Most importantly, he has the unshakable confidence and the work ethic to keep improving. I’ve spoken to people within the Timberwolves organization who say his film study habits have become obsessive. He’s not just watching his own clips; he’s breaking down the greats—Jordan, Kobe, Wade—to add new nuances to his game. We’re witnessing the birth of a true American superstar, a player who can potentially carry the mantle for the next decade. For any basketball fan, it’s a privilege to watch this pattern unfold in real-time. Anthony Edwards isn't just a rising star; he's the confirmation of a winning pattern, and the NBA is all the better for it.
