Walking into Game 3 of the PBA Finals, I can’t help but feel the weight of expectation hanging over San Miguel. On paper, they’re stacked—loaded with talent, depth, and championship DNA. But as I’ve learned covering this league for over a decade, paper doesn’t always translate to the hardwood. I remember talking to a colleague, someone who’s been around Philippine basketball even longer than I have, and she put it perfectly: “As much as pundits brand them as the odds-on favorites, you have to temper expectations knowing how competitive the field is going to be.” That line has stuck with me. It’s not just about who looks better coming in—it’s about who shows up when the lights are brightest. And in this series, Magnolia has repeatedly shown they won’t back down.
One matchup I’m zeroing in on is June Mar Fajardo versus Ian Sangalang. Now, statistically, Fajardo is a monster—averaging around 18 points and 13 rebounds this conference. He’s a six-time MVP for a reason. But Sangalang? He’s crafty, relentless, and knows how to use his body to disrupt timing. I’ve seen him hold Fajardo to single-digit rebounds in stretches, and if he can do that again in Game 3, it changes everything. Magnolia’s half-court defense thrives when they don’t give up second-chance points. On the flip side, if Fajardo dominates the paint early, San Miguel could build a lead that’s too steep to overcome. Personally, I think Fajardo will have a big night—maybe 22 and 14—but it won’t come easy. Sangalang will make him work for every inch.
Then there’s the backcourt battle. Chris Ross and Paul Lee are two of the most clutch performers I’ve seen in recent PBA memory. Ross brings that defensive tenacity—he’s averaging 2.1 steals per game in the finals—while Lee is just a flat-out scorer who isn’t afraid to take the big shot. I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve seen Lee drill a three in someone’s face with the shot clock winding down. But here’s the thing: Ross has been in this situation before. He knows how to disrupt rhythm without fouling, and if he can limit Lee’s touches in the fourth quarter, San Miguel gains a huge edge. I’ll be honest—I’m slightly biased toward guards who impact the game on both ends, so Ross has my respect. But Lee’s ability to create something out of nothing? That’s special.
The bench depth is another factor that doesn’t get enough attention. San Miguel’s second unit, led by guys like Moala Tautuaa, brings energy and scoring—they’ve contributed roughly 28 points per game this series. Magnolia, on the other hand, relies heavily on their starters, but Rafi Reavis and Jackson Corpuz have had moments where they’ve swung momentum with key rebounds or defensive stops. I remember one game where Corpuz grabbed five offensive boards in just twelve minutes. Efforts like that can’t be overlooked. If San Miguel’s bench outplays Magnolia’s reserves by even a small margin, it could be the difference in a close game. From my perspective, this is where coaching adjustments come into play. Chito Victolero has done a decent job rotating his bigs, but Leo Austria might have the deeper arsenal.
Let’s talk about three-point shooting, because in today’s game, it often decides outcomes. Marcio Lassiter is shooting around 38% from beyond the arc this conference, and when he gets hot, defenses have to scramble. Magnolia’s Mark Barroca and Jio Jalalon aren’t known as pure shooters, but they’ve hit timely threes throughout the playoffs. I’ve noticed that when Magnolia hits early threes, their defensive intensity ramps up. It fuels their transition game. Still, if San Miguel can defend the perimeter without compromising their interior defense, they’ll force Magnolia into tougher shots. My gut says three-point shooting will be the X-factor—if either team shoots above 35%, they’ll likely take control.
Transition play is another area where this series could tilt. Magnolia loves to push the pace—they average about 12 fast-break points per game—while San Miguel prefers to slow it down and execute in the half-court. I’ve always believed that tempo dictates style, and whoever controls the pace usually controls the game. If Magnolia can force turnovers and get out in the open court, they’ll neutralize San Miguel’s size advantage. But if San Miguel takes care of the ball and makes Magnolia play in crowded spaces, their experience should shine through. Watching how both teams adjust after timeouts will be fascinating. Coaches don’t always get credit for in-game decisions, but in a series this tight, one substitution or play call can swing everything.
As we head into Game 3, I keep coming back to that idea of tempered expectations. Yes, San Miguel is the favorite. They have the pedigree, the stars, and the stats. But Magnolia plays with a chip on their shoulder—they’ve been underestimated all season, and it’s fueled them. I’ve seen underdogs rise to the occasion too many times to write them off. My prediction? San Miguel wins a close one, 98-95, but it’ll come down to the final possession. The key matchups—Fajardo vs. Sangalang, Ross vs. Lee, bench production, three-point shooting, and tempo—will all play their part. In the end, it’s not just about talent. It’s about who wants it more, who executes under pressure, and who remembers that being the favorite doesn’t guarantee a thing. That’s why we watch. That’s why this game matters.
