Looking back at the 2011 NBA Draft now, over a decade later, I can’t help but marvel at how dramatically careers have diverged from the initial draft order. As someone who has followed the league closely—both as a fan and an analyst—I’ve always been fascinated by the thin line between a future star and a draft bust. That year, in particular, stands out not just for the obvious hits, but for the hidden gems that reshaped franchises and the painful misses that left front offices second-guessing themselves for years.
When I rewatch clips or revisit scouting reports from 2011, it’s clear that some teams nailed their picks, while others seemed to overlook talent hiding in plain sight. Take Kawhi Leonard, for example. Selected 15th overall by the Indiana Pacers and immediately traded to the San Antonio Spurs, Leonard wasn’t even the first small forward taken—yet he evolved into a two-time Finals MVP and one of the most complete two-way players of his generation. That’s what I call a historic steal. On the other end, you have players like Derrick Williams, picked second by the Minnesota Timberwolves. He showed flashes of brilliance but never found a consistent role, bouncing around six teams in seven seasons. It’s a stark reminder that draft position guarantees nothing.
What’s interesting to me is how certain players, like Isaiah Thomas, defied all odds. Selected last in the draft—60th overall—Thomas became a two-time All-Star and even finished fifth in MVP voting in 2017. That kind of ascent from the very bottom of the draft is almost unheard of. I remember watching him drop in the draft and thinking, “Someone’s going to regret passing on him.” And sure enough, several teams did. Then there’s the curious case of Jimmer Fredette. A college sensation and 10th overall pick, Jimmer never quite adapted to the NBA’s pace and defensive demands. He played for five teams in five years before heading overseas. Sometimes, the hype just doesn’t match the reality.
But let’s not forget the international picks. Jonas Valančiūnas, taken fifth by the Toronto Raptors, has been a steady, productive center for over a decade—a solid, if unspectacular, return on a lottery pick. Meanwhile, Jan Veselý, the sixth pick, managed just 3.6 points per game over three seasons before returning to Europe. It goes to show that scouting overseas talent remains a tricky art, not a science. I’ve always believed that teams that invest in international scouting—like the Spurs with Leonard and later, Manu Ginóbili types—tend to find those hidden values more consistently.
Now, reflecting on the draft busts, one name that still stands out to me is Bismack Biyombo. Picked seventh by the Sacramento Kings and traded to Charlotte, Biyombo was touted for his defensive presence. And while he’s had moments—like that surprising 2016 playoff run—he’s largely been a role player, not the franchise center some envisioned. I think part of the issue was his offensive game, or lack thereof; he averaged just 4.8 points per game for his career. That’s tough to justify for a top-10 pick. On the flip side, players like Chandler Parsons, taken 38th, looked like steals early on. Parsons averaged double-digit points for multiple seasons and even secured a massive contract later. But injuries derailed what could have been a standout career, which just underscores how health and luck play huge roles.
I also can’t ignore the mid-round picks that turned into pleasant surprises. Jimmy Butler, selected 30th by the Chicago Bulls, might be the biggest steal of the entire draft. From a little-known prospect at Marquette to a six-time All-Star and Olympic gold medalist, Butler’s work ethic transformed him into a franchise player. I’ve always admired his journey—it’s a testament to how development systems and player mindset can trump draft hype. Similarly, players like Tobias Harris, picked 19th, have enjoyed long, productive careers. Harris has averaged over 16 points per game across multiple teams, proving that steady contributors can emerge outside the lottery.
Of course, not every team’s gamble paid off. The Cleveland Cavaliers, for instance, took Tristan Thompson fourth overall. While he was a key piece in their 2016 championship run, his career averages of around 9 points and 8.5 rebounds per game feel a bit underwhelming for a top-five selection. I remember debates at the time about whether they should’ve gone with someone like Klay Thompson, who went 11th. Hindsight is 20/20, but it’s fascinating to think how different legacies could have been.
In wrapping up, the 2011 NBA Draft serves as a masterclass in talent evaluation—and missteps. From Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler rising from mid-to-late picks to stars, to high lottery selections fizzling out, it’s a draft that keeps analysts like me humble. It reminds us that beyond the combine numbers and highlight reels, factors like fit, coaching, and plain old luck determine careers. Personally, I think teams that prioritize character and adaptability—like the Spurs with Leonard—often come out ahead. Looking back, I’d say this draft had one of the higher “steal-to-bust” ratios in recent memory, and it’s a case study I still reference when evaluating new prospects today.
